Digital Ruble to Boost Russian Economy by $3.2 Billion Annually, Says Credit Agency
According to Russian media outlets RBC and TASS, the Digital Ruble to Boost Russian Economy by $3.2 Billion Annually, Says Credit Agency National Rating Agency (NRA), accredited by the Central Bank, predicts significant economic gains from the digital ruble, Russia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC).
Economic Impact Forecast by 2031
In a detailed report, the NRA estimates the digital ruble will inject up to 260 billion rubles ($3.2 billion) annually into Russia’s economy by 2031. The CBDC is set to launch nationwide in 2026, with major banks offering services starting in fall 2026, while smaller firms have until 2027 or 2028 to adopt it. The government plans to use the digital ruble for welfare payments, including pensions and child benefits.
Initial Costs, Long-Term Gains
The NRA acknowledges that the rollout will initially burden both public and private sectors with costs. However, it projects profitability soon after, with the banking sector potentially earning up to 50 billion rubles ($619 million) annually. Large businesses could see yearly gains of 30-50 billion rubles ($371 million-$619 million), while credit institutions might earn up to 8 billion rubles ($99 million) per year.
Banking Sector Risks and Rewards
The NRA warns that banks could face a temporary 8-10% profit drop due to competition from new services bypassing traditional banking. However, post-rollout, banks could gain up to 61 billion rubles ($755 million) annually from smart contracts, interbank transactions, and corporate liquidity services.
Skepticism and Strategic Goals
Sberbank Chairman German Gref has expressed doubts, stating in July that the digital ruble offers no clear benefits for citizens, banks, or businesses, as Russia’s financial transactions are already digitized. Despite this, the Ministry of Finance sees the CBDC as a tool to enhance transparency and combat corruption in government contracts.
BRICS and De-Dollarization Ambitions
Moscow views the digital ruble as a way to strengthen trade with BRICS partners, particularly China, which has advanced its own CBDC. Cross-border CBDC solutions are seen as a shield against U.S.-led sanctions, supporting Russia’s push to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade.
Adoption Timeline
On July 31, President Vladimir Putin signed a law outlining the digital ruble’s adoption, starting September 1, 2026. The NRA expects economic benefits to materialize between 2029 and 2031, transforming Russia’s financial landscape.